ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
Our operations and financial results are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described below, that could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, and the market price of our common stock. Additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently believe are immaterial may also harm our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, and the market price of our common stock.
Risk Factors Summary
The following is a summary of material risks that could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, and the market price of our common stock.
OPERATIONAL RISKS
• We may not be able to execute our business plan or growth strategy, including utility infrastructure investments, or business opportunities.
• Our distribution, transmission and generation activities involve a variety of inherent hazards and operating risks, including potential public safety risks.
• We currently conduct and may conduct in the future certain operations through a JV arrangement involving third-party investors that may result in operational impasses or litigation, including business delays as a result of such arrangements.
• Failure to adapt to advances in technology, including alternative energy sources, and changes in laws or regulations to support such advances in technology or alternative energy sources, and our inability to manage such related costs could make us less competitive.
• Increased dependency on technology may hinder our business operations and adversely affect our financial condition and results of operation if such technology fails.
• Aging infrastructure may lead to disruptions in operations and increased capital expenditures and maintenance costs.
• We may be unable to obtain insurance on acceptable terms or at all, and the insurance coverage we do obtain may not provide protection against all significant losses.
• Aspects of the implementation of our electric generation strategy, including the timing of the retirement of our coal generation units or the addition of new generation resources, may be delayed and may not achieve intended results.
• Our capital projects and programs subject us to construction and supply risks, and are subject to governmental oversight and approvals.
• Fluctuations in weather, gas and electricity commodity costs, and economic conditions may impact customer demand.
• Fluctuations in the price of energy commodities or their related transportation costs, or an inability to obtain an adequate, reliable and cost- effective fuel supply may impact our ability to meet customer demand.
• Failure to attract, retain or re-skill an appropriately qualified workforce, and maintain good labor relations, could adversely impact safety, service reliability, and customer satisfaction.
• Failure to effectively manage new initiatives and organizational changes.
• Actions of activist stockholders could negatively affect our business and stock price and cause us to incur significant expenses.
• We outsource certain business functions to third-party suppliers and service providers, and may be impacted by substandard performance or quality by third parties.
• The impacts of a cyber-attack or security breach on any of our or certain third-party technology systems, including operational disruptions and the loss or misuse of confidential and proprietary information and related liability.
• Failure to comply with cybersecurity laws and regulations and the resulting impact on our reputation and business.
• The impacts of natural disasters, acts of terrorism, acts of war, civil unrest, accidents, public health emergencies or other catastrophic events including operational disruptions.
• We are exposed to significant reputational risks, which make us vulnerable to a loss of cost recovery, increased litigation and negative public perception.
• The physical impacts of climate change and the transition to a lower carbon future are impacting our business and could materially adversely affect our results of operations.
• We are subject to operational and financial risks and liabilities associated with the implementation and efforts to achieve our carbon emission reduction goal.
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FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC AND MARKET RISKS
• We have substantial indebtedness which could adversely affect our financial condition.
• A drop in our credit ratings could adversely impact our cash flows, results of operation, financial condition and liquidity.
• Adverse economic and market conditions, including increases in inflation or interest rates, recession or changes in investor sentiment could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, cash flows, financial condition and liquidity.
• Most of our revenues are subject to regulation and are exposed to the impact of regulatory rate reviews and proceedings.
• The actions of regulators and legislators could result in outcomes that may adversely affect our earnings and liquidity.
• Our business operations are subject to economic conditions in certain industries.
• We are exposed to payment risk with respect to customers and risk that suppliers or counterparties will not perform their contractual obligations.
• We are a holding company and are dependent on cash generated by our subsidiaries to meet our debt obligations and pay dividends on our stock.
• Capital market performance and other factors may decrease the value of benefit plan assets, which then could require significant additional funding and impact earnings.
• Any future impairments of goodwill resulting in a significant charge to earnings in a future period and negatively impacting our compliance with certain contractual covenants.
LITIGATION, REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE RISKS
• The outcome of legal and regulatory proceedings, investigations, inquiries, claims and litigation related to our business operations may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position or liquidity.
• A failure to comply with changes in, or new or different interpretations of, the various federal, state and local laws, regulations, tariffs and policies applicable on our business.
• Our businesses are regulated under numerous environmental laws and regulations. The cost of compliance with these laws and regulations, and changes to or additions to, or reinterpretations of the laws and regulations, could be significant, and the cost of compliance may not be recoverable. Liability from the failure to comply with existing or changed laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial condition.
• Changes in tax laws or the interpretation thereof and challenges to tax positions could adversely affect our financial results.
DATA CENTER OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY RISKS
• Data center growth in our service territories, including a focus on northern Indiana, while providing growth opportunities that enhance our business strategy, provide significant financial, operational, and regulatory risks that must be effectively managed.
• Our construction of the Contract Assets and any generation or transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts involves significant risks. Construction delays, cost overruns or performance issues with the Contract Assets could reduce our returns under the ADS Contract or other future data center contracts and could require us to obtain additional financing.
• The terms and availability of the significant additional financing required to construct the Contract Assets and any generation or transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts.
• Pursuit of our partnership with ADS creates significant opportunity costs and reduces our strategic and financial flexibility in the near term.
• The return structure and risk profile of ADS Contract and any future data center contract will differ from those of NIPSCO’s traditionally regulated utility operations.
• Our partnership with ADS exposes us to significant customer concentration risk.
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OPERATIONAL RISKS
We may not be able to execute our business plan or growth strategy, including utility infrastructure investments, or business opportunities.
Operational, financial or regulatory conditions may result in our inability to execute our business plan or growth strategy, including investments related to natural gas and electric distribution and transmission infrastructure investments and our electric generation projects.
Our enterprise-wide transformation roadmap initiatives identify and enable long-term sustainable capability enhancements, cost optimization improvements, technology investments and work process optimization. These initiatives have increased the volume and pace of change within our organization and may not be effective or achieve planned results. These initiatives may also divert the attention of management from other aspects of our business. Utility infrastructure investments may not materialize, may cease to be achievable or economically viable and may not be successfully completed. Natural gas may cease to be viewed as an economically and environmentally attractive fuel. Certain environmental activist groups, investors and governmental entities continue to oppose natural gas delivery and infrastructure investments because of perceived environmental impacts associated with the natural gas supply chain and end use. Energy conservation, energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage, policies electric heat over gas heat and other factors may reduce demand for natural gas and electricity. In addition, we consider acquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses, JVs, and mergers from time to time as we execute on our business plan and growth strategy. Any of these circumstances could affect our business, results of operations and growth prospects. Even if our business plan, growth strategy, and/or business are executed, there is still risk of, among other things, human in maintenance, installation or operations, or in obtaining equipment, including as a result of transportation and availability, labor availability and performance below expected levels (in addition to the other risks discussed in this section). We may experience supply chain , including labor availability issues, impacting our ability to obtain materials for our gas and electric projects, as well as our ability to ensure timely completion.
Additionally, operational, financial or regulatory conditions or other factors may result in our inability to effectively develop and implement our strategy with respect to the complex business opportunities associated with growing interest in data centers from existing and potential customers. See “Data Center Operations and Strategy Risks” for a discussion of certain such risks.
Our distribution, transmission and generation activities involve a variety of inherent hazards and operating risks, including potential public safety risks.
Our gas distribution and transmission activities and our electric generation, transmission and distribution activities involve a variety of inherent hazards and operating risks, including, but not limited to, gas leaks and over-pressurization, downed power lines, stray electrical voltage, excavation or vehicular damage to our infrastructure, outages, environmental contamination, mechanical problems, damage from weather events, and other incidents, which could cause substantial financial losses. These hazards and risks have resulted and may result in serious injury or loss of life to employees and/or the general public, significant damage to property, environmental pollution, impairment of our operations, adverse regulatory rulings and reputational , which in turn could lead to substantial business and financial . The location of pipeline facilities, including regulator stations, liquefied natural gas and underground storage, or generation, transmission, substation and distribution facilities near populated areas, including residential areas, commercial business centers and industrial sites, could increase the level of resulting from such . have and may subject us to both civil and or administrative or other legal proceedings from time to time, which could result in substantial monetary judgments, , or us, be resolved on terms, and require us to incur significant operational expenses. The occurrence of has in certain instances affected and could in the future affect our reputation, cash flows, financial position and/or results of operations. We maintain insurance some, but not all, of these risks and .
We currently conduct and may conduct in the future certain operations through a JV arrangement involving third- party investors that may result in operational impasses or litigation, including business delays as a result of such arrangements.
We have and may enter into JV arrangements involving third-party investors, including the NIPSCO Minority Interest Transaction and the GenCo Minority Interest Transaction . As part of a JV arrangement, third-party investors may hold certain protective rights that may impact our ability to make certain decisions, restricting our operational and corporate flexibility. The NIPSCO Holdings II LLC Agreement and Generation Holdings II LLC Agreement contain certain such provisions. Any such third-party investors may have interests and objectives which may differ from ours, we may be unable to cause these third
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parties to take action that we believe would be in the JV’s best interest, and, accordingly, disputes may arise that may result in operational impasses or litigation, including business delays.
Failure to adapt to advances in technology, including alternative energy sources, and changes in laws or regulations to support such advances in technology or alternative energy sources, and our inability to manage such related costs could make us less competitive.
A key element of our electric business model includes generating power at central station power plants and transmitting that power to customers to achieve economies of scale and produce power at a competitive cost. We continue to transition our generation portfolio in order to implement new and diverse technologies including renewable energy, distributed generation, and energy storage. Advances in technology and potential competition supported by changes in laws or regulations could reduce the cost of electric generation and provide retail alternatives causing power sales to decline and the value of our generating, transmission and distribution facilities to decline, including our ability to recover our prior investments in such facilities.
Our natural gas business model depends on widespread utilization of natural gas for space heating as a core driver of revenues. Alternative energy sources, new technologies or alternatives to natural gas space heating, including cold climate heat pumps and/or efficiency of other products, and potential competition supported by changes in laws or regulations, including potential natural gas bans or restrictions, such as the Department of Energy's furnace rule banning non-condensing gas furnaces, could reduce demand and increase customer attrition, which could impact our ability to recover on our investments in our gas distribution assets.
Our future success will depend, in part, on our ability to anticipate and successfully adapt to technological changes, to offer services that meet customer demand and expectations and evolving industry standards, including environmental impacts associated with our products and services, and to recover all, or a significant portion of, remaining investments in retired assets. A failure by us to effectively adapt to changes in technology, successfully implement such changes, and manage the related costs could harm the ability of our products and services to remain competitive in the marketplace and could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Furthermore, if these changes do not provide the anticipated benefits or meet customer demand and expectations, such failure could materially adversely affect our business model as well as impact our results of operations and financial condition.
Increased dependency on technology may hinder our business operations and adversely affect our financial condition and results of operation if such technology fails.
We use a variety of technological tools and systems including both Company-owned information technology and technological services provided by outside parties. These tools and systems support critical functions including scheduling and dispatching of service technicians, automated meter reading systems, customer care and billing, operational plant logistics, management reporting and external financial reporting. The failure of these or other similarly important technologies, or our inability to have these technologies supported, updated, expanded, recovered (including timely recovered), or integrated into other technologies, could hinder our business operations and adversely impact our financial condition and results of operations. Although we have, when possible, developed alternative sources of technology and built redundancy and security into our computer operations, there can be no assurance that these efforts will protect against all potential issues related to the loss or failure of any such technologies.
Aging infrastructure may lead to disruptions in operations and increased capital expenditures and maintenance costs .
We face risks associated with aging electric and gas infrastructure. These risks can be driven by threats such as, but not limited to, electrical faults, mechanical failure, internal corrosion, external corrosion, ground movement and stress corrosion and/or cracking. The age of these assets may result in a need for replacement, a higher level of maintenance costs or unscheduled outages, despite efforts by us to properly maintain or upgrade these assets through inspection, scheduled maintenance and capital investment. In addition, the nature of the information available on aging infrastructure assets, which in some cases is incomplete, may make the operation of the infrastructure, inspections, maintenance, upgrading and replacement of the assets particularly challenging. Missing or incorrect infrastructure data may lead to (i) difficulty properly locating facilities, which can result in excavator damage and operational or emergency response issues, (ii) configuration and control risks associated with the modification of system operating pressures in connection with turning off or turning on service to customers, which can result in or operating pressures and (iii) other potential risks related to missing or infrastructure data. Also, additional maintenance and inspections are required in some instances to infrastructure information and records and address emerging regulatory or risk management requirements, resulting in increased costs.
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Supply chain issues related to shortages of materials, labor and transportation logistics may lead to delays in the maintenance and replacement of aging or damaged infrastructure, which could increase the probability and/or impact of a public safety incident. We lack diversity in suppliers of some gas materials. While we have implemented contractual protections with suppliers and stockpile certain materials in inventory, these efforts may not be effective in ensuring that we can obtain adequate emergency supply on a timely basis in each state, that no compromises are being made on quality and that we have alternate suppliers available. The failure to operate our assets as desired could result in interruption of service, major component failure at generating facilities and electric substations, gas leaks and other incidents, and an inability to meet firm service and compliance obligations, which could impact revenues, and could also result in increased capital expenditures and maintenance costs, which, if not fully recovered from customers, could impact our financial results.
We may be unable to obtain insurance on acceptable terms or at all, and the insurance coverage we do obtain may not provide protection against all significant losses.
Our ability to obtain insurance, as well as the cost and coverage of such insurance, is impacted by various events and developments affecting our industry and the financial condition and underwriting considerations of insurers. For example, some insurers have discontinued underwriting certain carbon-intensive energy-related businesses such as those in the coal industry or excluded coverage for specific perils such as wildfires, environmental exposures or punitive damage risks. Certain perils, such as cyber liability, are now being excluded from some master policies for property and casualty insurance, requiring, where we have the ability, procurement of additional policies to maintain consistent coverage at an additional cost. Specific natural catastrophe events, such as hail and tornado, may not be covered with the same limits as other perils in certain property policies, as full coverage for these events is unavailable in the marketplace. Insurance coverage may not continue to be available at limits, rates or terms acceptable to us, and we may elect not to carry coverage at the same levels as have been historically procured. In addition, our insurance is not sufficient or under all circumstances and all or liabilities to which we are subject. Certain types of , expenses or claimed costs, such as and , have been and in the future may be excluded under the policies. In addition, insurers providing insurance to us may raise defenses to coverage under the terms and conditions of the respective insurance policies that could result in a of coverage or limit the amount of insurance proceeds available to us. Any for which we are not fully insured or that are not covered by insurance at all could materially affect our results of operations, cash flows and financial position.
Aspects of the implementation of our electric generation strategy, including the timing of the retirement of our coal generation units or the addition of new generation resources, may be delayed and may not achieve intended results.
We intend to retire the remaining two coal units at R.M. Schahfer Generating Station, two natural gas-fired peaking units at R.M. Schahfer Generating Station, and the coal unit at Michigan City Generating Station. Absent a directive to remain open, we intend to retire the two natural-gas fired peaking units at R.M Schahfer Generating Station by the end of 2027 and the coal unit at Michigan City Generating Station by the end of 2028. Although we had previously intended to retire them by the end of 2025, the two coal units at R.M. Schahfer Generating Station are currently subject to a federal directive to remain open. These units are being replaced with a diverse, flexible, and scalable mix of incremental resources, including short-term contracted capacity resources, expanded demand side management programs, wind, solar, battery energy storage, and new natural gas peaking resources. Project delays or potential changes with MISO's capacity accreditation of these replacement resources, may also drive us to evaluate additional alternatives to meet our capacity requirements. Macro supply chain issues and U.S. federal policy actions, such as additional federal directives preventing the retirement of these or other assets and the duration of such directives, could create uncertainty around the timing and availability of key input materials necessary to develop and place our electric generation projects in service.
We expect renewable generation, battery energy storage and natural gas generation to be the primary ways in which we will meet our electric generation capacity and reliability obligations to the MISO market and reliably serve our customers when we retire our coal generation capacity. Any delays in the completion of such projects could create significant risks for us to reliably meet our capacity and energy obligations to MISO and to provide reliable and affordable energy to our customers. Delays to the completion dates of our projects could also include delays in the financial return of certain investments and impact the overall timing of our electric generation transition. An inability to secure and deliver on electric generation projects has negatively impacted, and could in the future negatively impact, our generation transition timeline and could negatively impact our achievement of decarbonization goals and reputation.
Our electric generation strategy may require additional investment to meet our MISO obligations and may require significant future capital expenditures, operating costs and charges to earnings that may negatively impact our financial position, financial results and cash flows. In recent years, MISO has implemented new capacity accreditation rules and continues to put forth new plans and proposals relating to its accreditation requirements. Recent MISO accreditation changes have affected generation
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resources, with solar, wind, and battery storage being more significantly impacted than natural gas. It is possible that, under future MISO rules, the capacity accreditation for the capacity resources we construct (potentially including the significant capacity resources we plan to construct to serve ADS and any additional data center customers) will be eliminated or reduced, in which case we would need to replace or supplement the accredited generation capacity we plan to build. We expect that we would need to obtain significant additional debt and equity financing to fund these investments, which may not be available on favorable terms or at all. Although under the terms of the ADS Contract the costs of additional investment in generation resources in response to loss of MISO accreditation would be shared by us and ADS, such investment would be funded initially by us, and our recovery from ADS would occur over an extended period of time. In addition, there can be no guarantee that future data center contracts will contain adequate protections in this regard, or that any such contractual protections would be effective. If we are required to construct additional generation as a result of MISO accreditation changes (and obtain related financing), this could negatively impact our return under the ADS Contract or other data center contracts or otherwise adversely affect our future results and financial condition.
Our capital projects and programs subject us to construction and supply risks, and are subject to regulatory oversight, including requirements for permits, approvals and certificates from various governmental agencies.
Our business requires substantial capital expenditures for investments in, among other things, capital improvements to our electric generating facilities, electric and natural gas transmission and distribution infrastructure, natural gas storage and other projects, including projects for environmental compliance. In particular, in addition to the capital projects we plan to undertake to support our base business, in connection with the ADS Contract, we expect to construct, through GenCo, 400 MW of new battery storage and a new power generation facility consisting of two 1,300 MW CCGTs, which are expected to reach commercial operation between 2028 and 2032, as well as related transmission and distribution assets. In addition, in order to perform under any further data center contracts, we expect that we will need to develop additional generation and transmission assets, which may be significant. As we undertake these projects, we may be unable to complete them on schedule or at the anticipated costs.
Our ability to construct the currently contemplated generation and transmission assets, and any future generation, transmission or distribution assets in a timely manner and within budget is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks. These variables include, but are not limited to, the ability of key suppliers, general contractors and subcontractors to timely satisfy their obligations under existing or future contracts and in compliance with the terms of such contracts, including the EPC Contracts and equipment supply contracts we have already entered into; the impact of new tariffs, if any, inflation and other trade or economic factors that may impact the cost of supplies and services; any other changes in the availability or costs of materials, equipment or commodities; changes in law or regulation, including environmental compliance requirements; the availability of and ability of our contractors to hire and retain qualified labor and the cost of such labor; delays caused by construction incidents or injuries, work stoppages, poor initial cost estimates and unforeseen engineering issues; the impact of public health emergencies or natural disasters or other weather events; capital market conditions, including the availability of credit and our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms; charges allocated to us by MISO with respect to these assets; the impact of public involvement, intervention or ; and our ability to obtain any necessary land rights, easements and/or zoning approvals in a timely manner, or at all.
We are monitoring risks related to increasing delivery lead times for certain construction and other materials, increasing risk associated with the unavailability of materials due to global shortages in raw materials and issues with transportation logistics, and risk of decreased construction labor productivity in the event of disruptions in the availability of materials critical to our gas and electric operations. Our efforts to enhance our resiliency to supply chain shortages may not be effective. We continue to see increasing prices and limited availability associated with certain materials, equipment and products, which may impact our ability to complete major capital projects at the cost and timing that was planned and approved. To the extent that delays occur, costs increase, costs become unrecoverable or recovery is delayed, or we otherwise become unable to effectively manage our costs and timely complete our capital projects, if at all, our business operations, results of operations, cash flows, and financial condition may be affected. In addition, to the extent that occur on projects that target system , the risk of an operational could increase.
Our existing and planned capital projects require numerous permits, approvals and certificates from federal, state, and local governmental agencies, including obtaining necessary rights-of-way, easements and transmissions connections, as well as complying with various environmental statutes, rules and regulations, among other items. If there is a delay in obtaining any required regulatory approvals or if we fail to obtain or maintain any required approvals or to comply with any applicable laws or regulations, including as a result of public opposition to our existing or planned capital projects or due to new or increased federal, state or local requirements, we may not be able to construct or operate our facilities, we may be forced to incur
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additional costs, we may be forced to alter our capital project plans resulting in increased costs and/or delays or we may be unable to recover any or all amounts invested in a project. We also may not receive the anticipated increases in revenue and cash flows resulting from such projects and programs until after their completion.
In addition, we are subject to the risk that we may construct or purchase certain projects to capture anticipated future growth (including in connection with potential data center customers), which may not materialize, and may cause the construction to occur over an extended period of time, in which case we may be unable to recover any or all amounts invested in such a project, or receive the anticipated increases in revenue and cash flows resulting from such projects until much later than expected, if at all.
A significant portion of the gas and electricity we sell is used by residential and commercial customers for heating and air conditioning. Accordingly, fluctuations in weather, gas and electricity commodity costs, and economic conditions impact customer demand.
Energy sales are sensitive to variations in weather. Forecasts of energy sales are based on “normal” weather, which represents a long-term historical average. Significant variations from normal weather resulting from climate change or other factors could have, and have had, a material impact on energy sales. Additionally, residential usage, and to some degree commercial usage, is sensitive to fluctuations in commodity costs for gas and electricity (which volatility is described in more detail in the below risk factor), whereby usage declines with increased costs which could affect our financial results. Rising gas costs could heighten regulator and stakeholder sensitivity relative to the impact of base rate increases on customer affordability. Lastly, residential and commercial customers’ usage is sensitive to economic conditions and factors such as recession, inflation, unemployment, demand and consumer confidence. Therefore, prevailing economic conditions affecting our customers may in turn affect demand and our financial results.
Fluctuations in the price of energy commodities or their related transportation costs, or an inability to obtain an adequate, reliable and cost- effective fuel supply may impact our ability to meet customer demand.
Our current electric generating depends on coal and natural gas for fuel, and our gas distribution operations purchase and resell a portion of the natural gas we deliver to our customers. These energy commodities are subject to price fluctuations and fluctuations in associated transportation costs. We use physical hedging through the use of storage assets and use financial products in certain jurisdictions in order to offset fluctuations in commodity supply prices. We rely on regulatory recovery mechanisms in the various jurisdictions we operate in order to fully recover the commodity costs incurred in selling energy to our customers. While we have historically been successful in the recovery of costs related to such commodity prices, there can be no assurance that such costs will be fully recovered through rates in a timely manner.
In addition, we depend on electric transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, and other transportation and storage facilities owned and operated by third parties to deliver the electricity and natural gas we sell to wholesale markets, supply natural gas to our gas storage and electric generation facilities, and provide retail energy services to our customers. If transportation is disrupted, if capacity is inadequate or if supply is interrupted, we may be unable to sell and deliver our gas and electric services to some or all of our customers. As a result, we may be required to procure additional or alternative electricity and/or natural gas supplies at then-current market rates, which, if recovery of related costs is disallowed, could have a material adverse effect on our businesses, financial condition, cash flows, results of operations and/or prospects.
Failure to attract, retain or re-skill an appropriately qualified workforce, and maintain good labor relations, could adversely impact safety, service reliability, and customer satisfaction.
We face increased competition for talent which may result in longer hire times or increased cost due to the competitive nature of certain positions.
We operate in an industry that requires many of our employees and contractors to possess unique technical skill sets. An aging workforce without appropriate replacements, the mismatch of current skill sets to future needs, the unavailability of talent for internal positions and the unavailability of contract resources may lead to operating challenges or increased costs. These operating challenges include lack of resources, loss of knowledge and a lengthy time period associated with skill development. For example, certain skills, such as those related to construction, maintenance and repair of transmission and distribution systems, are in high demand and have a limited supply. Current and prospective employees may determine that they do not wish to work for us due to market, economic, employment or other conditions, including those related to organizational changes as described in the risk factor below.
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Further, as part of our strategic plan, which includes enhanced technology, transmission and distribution investments, and a reduction in reliance on coal-fired generation, we will need to attract and retain personnel that are qualified to implement such a strategy and may need to retrain or re-skill certain employees to support our long-term objectives. Additionally, successful implementation of our strategic plan is dependent on our ability to recruit and retain key executive officers to oversee our progress.
A significant portion of our workforce is subject to collective bargaining agreements. Our collective bargaining agreements are generally negotiated on an operating company basis with some companies having multiple bargaining agreements, which may span different geographies. Any failure to reach an agreement on new labor contracts or to renegotiate these labor contracts might result in labor disruptions, strikes or significant negotiated wage or benefit increases. Although we maintain workforce continuity plans, our workforce continuity plans may not be effective in avoiding work stoppages that may result from labor negotiations or mass resignations. Labor disruptions, strikes or significant negotiated wage and benefit increases, whether due to union activities, employee turnover or otherwise, could have a material adverse effect on our businesses, results of operations and/or cash flows.
Failure to attract, retain, or re-skill qualified employees, including the ability to transfer significant internal historical knowledge and expertise to new employees, could result in a loss of momentum, loss of high-level employees to our peers and could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, cash flow and financial condition. If we are unable to successfully attract and retain an appropriately qualified workforce and maintain satisfactory labor relations, safety, service reliability, and customer satisfaction, our results of operations could be adversely affected.
If we cannot effectively manage new initiatives and organizational changes, we will be unable to address the opportunities and challenges presented by our strategy and the business and regulatory environment.
In order to execute on our sustainable growth strategy and enhance our culture of ongoing continuous improvement, we must effectively manage the complexity and frequency of new initiatives and organizational changes. The organizational changes from our transformation initiatives put pressure on employees due to the volume and pace of change and, in some cases, the loss of personnel. Front-line workers are being impacted by the variety of process and technology changes that are currently in progress.
If we are unable to make decisions quickly, assess our opportunities and risks, and successfully implement new governance, managerial and organizational processes as needed to execute our strategy in this increasingly dynamic and competitive business and regulatory environment, our financial condition, results of operations and relationships with our business partners, regulators, customers, employees and stockholders may be negatively impacted.
Actions of activist stockholders could negatively affect our business and stock price and cause us to incur significant expenses.
We may be subject to actions or proposals from activist stockholders or others that may not be aligned with our long-term strategy or the interests of our other stockholders. Our response to suggested actions, proposals, director nominations and contests for the election of directors by activist stockholders could disrupt our business and operations, divert the attention of our board of directors, management and employees, and be costly and time‐consuming. Potential actions by activist stockholders or others may interfere with our ability to execute our strategic plans; create perceived uncertainties as to the future direction of our business or strategy; cause uncertainty with our regulators; make it more difficult to attract and retain qualified personnel; and adversely affect our relationships with our existing and potential business partners. Any of the foregoing could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Also, we may be required to incur significant fees and other expenses related to responding to stockholder activism, including for third-party advisors. Moreover, our stock price could be subject to significant fluctuation or otherwise be adversely affected by the events, risks and uncertainties of any stockholder activism.
We outsource certain business functions to third-party suppliers and service providers, and may be impacted by substandard performance or quality by third parties.
Utilities rely on extensive networks of business partners and suppliers to support critical enterprise capabilities across their organizations. Like other companies in the utilities industry, we outsource certain services to third parties in areas including construction services, information technology, materials, fleet, environmental, operational services, corporate and other areas. We have seen, and may see in the future, slowing deliveries from suppliers and in some cases materials and labor shortages. In addition to delays and unavailability, at times, outsourcing of services to third parties could expose us to inferior service quality or substandard deliverables, which may result in non-compliance (including with applicable legal requirements and industry
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standards), interruption of service, accidents, or reputational harm, which could negatively impact our business, financial condition and results of operations. The nature of indirect supply chain, including a potential lack of control or certain visibility into sourcing by vendors, may also impact our ability to serve customers in a safe, reliable and cost-effective manner. These risks include the risk of operational failure, reputation damage, disruption due to new supply chain disruptions, exposure to significant commercial losses and fines and poorly positioned and distressed suppliers. If delayed deliveries and shortages or any other in the operations of these third-party suppliers and service providers, including their systems, were to occur, they could affect our results of operations, or affect our ability to work with regulators, unions, customers, or employees.
A cyber-attack or security breach on any of our or certain third-party technology systems, including but not limited to information systems, infrastructure, software and hardware, upon which we rely may adversely affect our ability to operate, could lead to a loss or misuse of confidential and proprietary information, or potential liability.
We are reliant on technology to run our business, which is dependent upon technology systems to process critical information necessary to conduct various elements of our business, including the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity; operation of our gas pipeline facilities; and the recording and reporting of commercial and financial transactions to regulators, investors and other stakeholders. In addition to general information and cybersecurity risks that all large corporations face (e.g., ransomware, malware, unauthorized access attempts, phishing attacks, malicious intent by insiders, third-party software vulnerabilities and inadvertent disclosure of sensitive information), the utility industry faces evolving and increasingly complex cybersecurity risks associated with protecting electric grid and natural gas infrastructure as well as sensitive and confidential customer and employee information. Deployment or adoption of new or emerging business technologies, including artificial intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and cloud-based platforms, increased reliance on third-party vendors, cloud service providers and software supply chains, along with maintaining legacy technology, heightens our exposure to risks outside of our control and represents a large-scale opportunity for attacks on our information systems and confidential customer and employee information, as well as on the of the electric grid and the natural gas infrastructure. Increasing large-scale corporate cyber-attacks in conjunction with more sophisticated continue to utility companies. Additionally, international , as well as increased surveillance activity from global actors, has increased the likelihood of a cyber-attack or security on infrastructure systems.
Additionally, our information systems could experience sophisticated, cyber-attacks or security breaches by a variety of sources, including foreign sources, with the apparent aim to breach our cyber-defenses. While we have implemented and maintain a cybersecurity program designed to protect our information technology, operational technology, and data systems from such cyber-attacks or security breaches, our cybersecurity program does not prevent all breaches, cyber-attack or security breach incidents. We have experienced an increase in the number of attempts by external parties to access our networks or our company data without authorization. We have experienced, and expect to continue to experience, cybersecurity intrusions and attacks or security breaches to our information systems. To our knowledge, none of these intrusions or attacks have resulted in a material cybersecurity intrusion or data breach. The risk of a disruption or breach of our operational technology, or the compromise of the data processed in connection with our operations, through cybersecurity or ransomware attack has increased as attempted cyber-attacks or security have advanced in sophistication and number around the world. Technological complexities combined with advanced cyber-attack or security techniques, of cybersecurity hygiene and human can result in a cybersecurity , such as a ransomware attack. Supplier non-compliance with cybersecurity controls can also result in a cybersecurity . We are aware of vendor cybersecurity that have impacted our business, although no such events have had a material impact. Cyber-attacks or security can occur at any point in the supply chain or with any suppliers, and future supplier non-compliance with cybersecurity controls could result in material cybersecurity . In addition, we use unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) or drones in our business operations. UASs are also being used for activities and the cybersecurity risk in connection with operating UASs is increasing.
In addition, we collect and retain personally identifiable information of our customers and employees. Customers and employees expect that we will adequately protect their personal information.
A cybersecurity breach of our information systems or operational technology, or a cybersecurity breach of the information systems of our customers, suppliers or others with whom we do business, could, among other things, (i) adversely impact our ability to safely and reliably deliver electricity and natural gas to our customers through our generation, transmission and distribution systems and potentially negatively impact our compliance with certain mandatory reliability and gas flow standards, (ii) subject us to reputational and other harm or liabilities associated with theft or inappropriate release of certain types of information such as system operating information or information, personal or otherwise, relating to our customers or employees, (iii) impact our ability to manage our businesses, and/or (iv) subject us to legal and regulatory proceedings and
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claims from third parties, in addition to remediation costs, any of which, in turn, could have a material adverse effect on our businesses, cash flows, financial condition and/or results of operations. Although we do maintain cybersecurity insurance, it is possible that such insurance will not adequately cover any losses or liabilities we may incur as a result of a cybersecurity incident.
Compliance with and changes in cybersecurity requirements have a cost and operational impact on our business, and failure to comply with such laws and regulations could adversely impact our reputation, results of operations, financial condition and/or cash flows.
The legal and regulatory environment surrounding cybersecurity and privacy is increasingly demanding. As cyber-attacks or security breaches are becoming more sophisticated, critical infrastructure assets, including pipelines and electric infrastructure, may be specifically targeted. In November 2024, the TSA issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) that would mandate cyber risk management and reporting requirements for the pipeline industry. Such directives or additional legal requirements may require expenditure of significant additional resources to respond to cyber-attacks or security breaches, to continue to modify or enhance protective measures, or to assess, investigate and remediate any critical infrastructure security vulnerabilities. Increased costs and the operational impacts of compliance and changes in cybersecurity requirements, including any failure to comply with government regulations or any failure in our cybersecurity protective measures may result in enforcement actions, all of which may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, there is no certainty that costs incurred related to securing will be recovered through rates.
The impacts of natural disasters, acts of terrorism, acts of war, civil unrest, accidents, public health emergencies or other catastrophic events may disrupt operations and reduce the ability to service customers.
A disruption or failure of natural gas distribution systems, or within electric generation, transmission or distribution systems, in the event of a hurricane, tornado, wildfire, flood, or other major weather event, or terrorist attack, acts of war, international military invasions, including the political and economic disruption and uncertainty related to such terrorist attack, acts of war, or international military invasions, civil unrest, accident, public health emergency (e.g. pandemic), or other catastrophic event could cause delays in completing sales, providing services, or performing other critical functions. We have experienced disruptions in the past from tornadoes, hurricanes and remnants of hurricanes and other events of this nature. Also, companies in our industry face a heightened risk of exposure to and have experienced acts of terrorism and vandalism. Our electric and gas physical infrastructure may be targets of physical security threats or terrorist activities that could our operations. We have increased security given the current environment and may be required by regulators or by the future environment to make investments in security that we cannot currently predict. In addition, supply chain constraints could impact our ability to timely restore services. The occurrence of such events could materially affect our business, financial position and results of operations. In accordance with customary industry practice, we maintain insurance some, but not all, of these risks and . As a result, the amount and scope of insurance coverage maintained resulting from any such event may not be sufficient to cover such or otherwise compensate for any business that could result.
We are exposed to significant reputational risks, which make us vulnerable to a loss of cost recovery, increased litigation and negative public perception.
As a utility company, we are subject to adverse publicity focused on the actual or perceived reliability or affordability of our services, the speed with which we are able to respond effectively to electric outages, natural gas leaks or events and related accidents and similar interruptions caused by storm damage, physical or cybersecurity incidents, or other unanticipated events, as well as our own or third parties’ actions or failure to act. We are subject to prevailing labor markets and potential high attrition, which may impact the speed of our customer service response. We are also facing supply chain challenges, the impacts of which may adversely impact our reputation in several areas as described elsewhere in these risk factors. We are also subject to adverse publicity related to actual or perceived environmental practices or impacts, including our ability to meet the posed by climate change and our carbon emission reduction goals, as well as opinions regarding the appropriateness of such goals. If customers, legislators or regulators have or develop a opinion of us, this could result in less legislative and regulatory outcomes or increased regulatory oversight, increased and public perception. The foregoing may have effects on our business, results of operations, cash flow and financial condition.
The physical impacts of climate change and the transition to a lower carbon future are impacting our business and could materially adversely affect our results of operations.
Climate change is exacerbating risks to our physical infrastructure by increasing the frequency of extreme weather, including temperature stresses to our electric and gas systems and equipment and storms and floods that damage infrastructure. In addition, climate change is likely to cause lake and river level changes that affect the manner in which services are currently
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provided and droughts or other limits on water used to supply services, and other extreme weather conditions. We have adapted and will continue to evolve our infrastructure and operations to meet current and future needs of our stakeholders. With higher frequency of these and other possible extreme weather events it may become more costly for us to safely and reliably deliver certain products and services to our customers. As our generation profile increases geographically, it is potentially more vulnerable to certain weather hazards, thereby increasing the frequency of weather impacts to overall electric reliability. Furthermore, in certain locations, our generation assets are geographically concentrated. Therefore, a localized weather or hazard impacting such a location could have a disproportionate cost and adverse effect on our ability to deliver certain products and services. Some of these costs may not be recovered. To the extent that we are unable to recover those costs, or if higher rates arising from recovery of such costs result in reduced demand for services, our future financial results may be adversely impacted. Further, as the intensity and frequency of significant weather events increases, insurers may reprice or remove themselves from insuring risks for which the company has historically maintained insurance, resulting in increased cost or risk to us.
Our strategy may be impacted by policy and legal, technology, market and reputational risks and opportunities that are associated with the transition to a lower-carbon economy, as disclosed in other risk factors in this section. As a result of increased awareness regarding climate change, coupled with economic considerations, availability of alternative energy sources, including private solar, microturbines, fuel cells, energy-efficient buildings and energy storage devices, and regulations restricting, or imposing fees on, emissions, some consumers and companies may use less energy, meet their own energy needs through alternative energy sources or avoid expansions of their facilities, including natural gas facilities, which may result in less demand for our services. As these technologies become a more cost-competitive option, whether through cost effectiveness or government incentives and subsidies, certain customers may choose to meet their own energy needs and subsequently decrease usage of our systems and services, which may result in, among other things, our facilities becoming less competitive and economical. Further, evolving investor sentiment related to the use of fossil fuels and initiatives to restrict continued production of fossil fuels could result in a significant impact on our electric generation and natural gas businesses in the future.
We are unable to forecast the future of commodity markets. Some of our generation is dependent on natural gas and coal, and we pass through the costs for these energy sources to our customers. In addition, in our gas distribution business, we procure natural gas on behalf of certain customers, and we pass through the actual cost of the gas consumed. Diminished investor interest in funding fossil fuel development could reduce the amount of exploration and production of natural gas or coal, or investment in gas transmission pipelines. Reduced production and transportation of natural gas could, in the long-term, lead to supply shortages leading to baseload generation outages. Given that we pass through commodity costs to customers, this could also create the potential for regulatory questions resulting from increased customer costs, reduced fossil fuel investment, due to evolving investor sentiment, could lead to higher commodity prices and shortages impacting our generation and our reputation with regulators. Conversely, demand for our services may increase as a result of customer changes in response to climate change. For example, as the utilization of electric vehicles increases, demand for electricity may increase, resulting in increased usage of our systems and services.
Any negative views with respect to our environmental practices or our ability to meet the challenges posed by climate change from regulators, customers, investors or legislators could not only harm our reputation, but could adversely affect the perceived value of our products and services. Changes in policy to combat climate change, and technology advancement, each of which can also accelerate the implications of a transition to a lower carbon economy, may materially adversely impact our business, financial position, results of operations, and cash flows . For example, Maryland is considering policies related to the planning, practices, and future operations of natural gas suppliers in its state which could impact our business in the future.
We are subject to operational and financial risks and liabilities associated with the implementation and efforts to achieve our carbon emission reduction goal.
In November 2022, we announced our goal of reaching net zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 (the “Net Zero Goal”). Achieving the Net Zero Goal will require supportive regulatory and legislative policies, favorable stakeholder environments and advancement of technologies that are not currently economically or technologically feasible to deploy at scale, of which, the impacts and costs are not currently fully understood. NIPSCO’s electric generation transition, which is outlined in the 2024 Plan, is a key element of the Net Zero Goal. Our analysis and plan for execution requires us to make a number of assumptions. These underlying assumptions involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees. Should one or more of our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results and ability to achieve our emissions goal could differ materially from our expectations. Certain of the assumptions that could impact our ability to meet our emissions goal include, but are not limited to: the accuracy of current emission measurements; the ability to complete and implement generation alternatives to NIPSCO’s coal generation and retire NIPSCO’s coal facilities; the ability to implement our modernization plans
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for our natural gas pipelines and facilities, including construction of new pipelines and facilities; customer demand and capacity needs remaining in line with current expectations, including impacts from energy efficiency and technological innovation and adoption of alternative energy sources; the ability to effectively manage emissions associated with electric generation to serve growth and data center development; the ability to manage costs and supply chain risks associated with construction of electric and natural gas assets; technological innovation and costs of energy generation technologies such as wind, solar, nuclear thermal and energy storage, and of carbon abatement technologies such carbon capture solutions; stakeholder support for these technologies; regulatory approval and the terms of such approvals; impacts of potential future environmental regulations or legislation, including potential GHG pricing regimes such as a carbon tax or methane fee; the price, availability and regulation of carbon offsets; and the price of natural gas and alternative fuels such as hydrogen. Any negative opinions with respect to these goals or our environmental practices, including our ability to meet the challenges posed by climate change and our ability to achieve our carbon emission reduction goals, or a scaling back of these goals, formed by regulators, customers, investors or legislators could our reputation and have an effect on our financial condition.
FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC AND MARKET RISKS
We have substantial indebtedness which could adversely affect our financial condition.
Our business is capital intensive and we rely significantly on long-term debt to fund a portion of our capital expenditures and repay outstanding debt, and on short-term borrowings to fund a portion of day-to-day business operations. We had total consolidated indebtedness of $16,213.5 million outstanding as of December 31, 2025. Our substantial indebtedness could have important consequences. For example, it could:
• limit our ability to borrow additional funds or increase the cost of borrowing additional funds;
• reduce the availability of cash flow from operations to fund working capital, capital expenditures and other general corporate purposes;
• limit our flexibility in planning for, or reacting to, changes in the business and the industries in which we operate;
• lead parties with whom we do business to require additional credit support, such as letters of credit, in order for us to transact such business;
• place us at a competitive disadvantage compared to competitors that are less leveraged;
• increase vulnerability to general adverse economic and industry conditions; and
• limit our ability to execute on our growth strategy, which is dependent upon access to capital to fund our substantial infrastructure investment program.
Some of our debt obligations contain financial covenants related to debt-to-capital ratios and cross-default provisions. Our failure to comply with any of these covenants could result in an event of default, which, if not cured or waived, could result in the acceleration of outstanding debt obligations. Additionally, non-compliance with debt covenants could adversely affect our ability to obtain future borrowings. Any and all of the above could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity.
In addition, we expect to incur significant additional indebtedness in order to construct the generation and transmission assets needed to serve ADS and any future data center customers. See “Data Center Operations and Strategy Risks—We will be required to obtain significant additional financing in order to construct the Contract Assets and any generation or transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts. Such financing may not be available on favorable terms, if at all.” and “—Pursuit of our partnership with ADS creates significant opportunity costs and reduces our strategic and financial flexibility in the near term.” for a discussion of certain risks relating to this anticipated additional indebtedness.
A drop in our credit ratings could adversely impact our cash flows, results of operation, financial condition and liquidity.
The availability and cost of credit for our businesses may be greatly affected by credit ratings. The credit rating agencies periodically review our ratings, taking into account factors such as our actual or perceived business risk (including increasing data center operations as compared to traditional utility operations), capital structure, earnings profile, liabilities, business strategy, and overall shifts in the economy or business environment. We are committed to maintaining investment grade credit ratings; however, there is no assurance we will be able to do so in the future. Our credit ratings could be lowered or withdrawn entirely by a rating agency if, in its judgment, the circumstances warrant. Any negative rating action could adversely affect our ability to access capital at rates and on terms that are attractive. A negative rating action could also adversely impact our business relationships with suppliers and operating partners, who may be less willing to extend credit or offer us similarly favorable terms as secured in the past under such circumstances.
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Certain of our subsidiaries have agreements that contain “ratings triggers” that require increased collateral in the form of cash, a letter of credit or other forms of security for new and existing transactions if our credit ratings (including the standalone credit ratings of certain of our subsidiaries) drop below investment grade. These agreements are primarily for insurance purposes and for the physical purchase or sale of gas or power. As of December 31, 2025, the collateral requirement that would be required in the event of a downgrade below the ratings trigger levels would amount to approximately $150.2 million. In addition to agreements with ratings triggers, there are other agreements that contain “adequate assurance” or “material adverse change” provisions that could necessitate additional credit support such as letters of credit and cash collateral to transact business.
If our or certain of our subsidiaries’ credit ratings were downgraded, especially below investment grade, financing costs and the principal amount of our indebtedness would likely increase due to the additional risk of our debt and because certain counterparties may require additional credit support as described above. Such increase may be material and could adversely affect our cash flows, results of operations and financial condition. Losing investment grade credit ratings may also result in more restrictive covenants and reduced flexibility on repayment terms in debt issuances, lower our share price and result in greater stockholder dilution from common equity issuances, in addition to reputational damage within the investment community.
Adverse economic and market conditions, including increases in inflation or interest rates, recession or changes in investor sentiment could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, cash flows, financial condition and liquidity.
Deteriorating, sluggish or volatile economic conditions in our operating jurisdictions could adversely impact our ability to maintain or grow our customer base and collect revenues from customers, which could reduce our revenue or growth rate and increase operating costs. A continued economic downturn or recession, or slowing or stalled recovery from such economic downturn or recession, may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.
We rely on access to the capital markets to finance our liquidity and long-term capital requirements, including expenditures for our utility infrastructure and to comply with future regulatory requirements, to the extent not satisfied by the cash flow generated by our operations. We have historically relied on the issuance of long-term debt and equity securities to fund a portion of our capital expenditures and repay outstanding debt, and on short-term borrowings to fund a portion of day-to-day business operations. There may be external factors such as inflation, monetary policy or other market conditions which could impact our cost of borrowing and could make it more difficult to obtain financing for our operations or investments on favorable terms. Successful implementation of our long-term business strategies, including capital investment, is dependent upon our ability to access the capital and credit markets, including the banking and commercial paper markets, on competitive terms and rates. An economic downturn or uncertainty, market turmoil, changes in interest rates, changes in tax policy, challenges faced by financial institutions, changes in our credit ratings, or a change in investor sentiment toward us or the utilities industry generally could affect our ability to raise additional capital or refinance debt. For example, because NIPSCO’s current generating facilities partially rely on coal for its operations, certain financial institutions may choose not to participate in our financing arrangements. In addition, investors may choose to sell or choose not to purchase our stock due to environmental, social and governance or sustainability . Reduced access to capital markets, increased borrowing costs, and/or lower equity valuation levels could reduce future earnings per share and cash flows. In addition, any rise in interest rates may lead to higher borrowing costs, which may impact reported earnings, cost of capital and capital holdings.
We may face limits on our ability, or inability, to access credit and capital markets or may experience significant increases in the cost of capital, which could limit our ability to implement or increase the costs of implementing, our business plan, which, in turn, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, cash flows, financial condition and liquidity.
Most of our revenues are subject to regulation and are exposed to the impact of regulatory rate reviews and proceedings.
Most of our revenues are subject to regulation at either the federal or state level. As such, the revenues generated by us are subject to regulatory review by the applicable federal or state authority. These rate reviews determine the rates charged to customers and directly impact our revenues. Our financial results are dependent on frequent regulatory proceedings in order to ensure timely recovery of costs and investments. As described in more detail in the risk factor below, the outcomes of these proceedings are uncertain, potentially lengthy and could be influenced by many factors, some of which may be outside of our control, including the cost of providing service, the regulators' view as to the necessity of our expenditures, regulatory interpretations, customer intervention, economic conditions, the political environment and customer affordability. Further, the rate orders are subject to appeal, which creates additional uncertainty as to the rates that will ultimately be allowed to be charged for services.
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The actions of regulators and legislators could result in outcomes that may adversely affect our earnings and liquidity.
The rates that our electric and natural gas companies charge their customers are determined by their state regulatory commissions and by the FERC. These state regulatory commissions also regulate the companies’ accounting, operations, the issuance of certain securities and certain other matters. The FERC also regulates the transmission of electric energy, the sale of electric energy at wholesale, accounting, issuance of certain securities and certain other matters, including reliability standards through the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Further, NIPSCO’s and GenCo’s operations under the ADS Contract will be, and under future data center contracts are expected to be, regulated by the IURC in a different way from the regulatory mechanisms applicable to NIPSCO’s historical operations. See “Data Center Operations and Strategy Risks” for a discussion of certain such risks.
Under state and federal law, our electric and natural gas companies are entitled to charge rates that are sufficient to allow them an opportunity to recover their prudently incurred operating and capital costs and a reasonable rate of return on invested capital, to attract needed capital and maintain their financial integrity, while also protecting relevant public interests. Our electric and natural gas companies are required to engage in regulatory approval proceedings as a part of the process of establishing the terms and rates for their respective services. Each of these companies prepares and submits periodic rate filings with their respective regulatory commissions for review and approval, which allows for various entities to challenge our current or future rates, structures or mechanisms and could alter or limit the rates we are allowed to charge our customers. These proceedings typically involve multiple parties, including governmental bodies and officials, consumer advocacy groups, and various consumers of energy, who have differing interests. Any change in rates, including changes in allowed rate of return, are subject to regulatory approval proceedings that can be contentious, lengthy, and subject to appeal. This may lead to uncertainty as to the ultimate result of those proceedings. Established rates are also subject to subsequent prudency reviews by regulators, whereby various portions of rates could be adjusted, subject to refund or , including cost recovery mechanisms. The ultimate outcome and timing of regulatory rate proceedings could have a significant effect on our ability to recover costs or earn an adequate return. decisions in our proceedings or changes to the related regulatory rules or processes could affect our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
There can be no assurance that regulators will approve the recovery of all operating and capital costs incurred by our electric and natural gas companies, including, but not limited to, costs for construction, operation and maintenance, and compliance with current and future changes in environmental, federal pipeline safety, critical infrastructure and cybersecurity laws and regulations. Further, we face regulatory challenges when our electric and gas companies seek regulatory recovery of increases to materials and other costs as a result of inflationary pressures, including accounting for inflationary pricing in plans and assumptions and ensuring there is a regulatory recovery model. There is debate among regulators and other stakeholders over how to transition to a decarbonized economy and prudency arguments relative to investing in natural gas assets when the depreciable life of the assets may be shortened due to electrification. The inability to recover a significant amount of operating or capital costs could have an adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
Changes to rates may occur at times different from when costs are incurred. Additionally, catastrophic events at other utilities could result in our regulators and legislators imposing additional requirements that may lead to additional costs or operational requirements for our companies.
In addition to the risk of disallowance of incurred costs, regulators may also impose downward adjustments in a company’s allowed ROE, as well as assess penalties and fines. Regulators may reduce ROE to mitigate potential customer bill increases due to items unrelated to capital investments. These actions would have an adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
For a discussion of the regulation of our operations related to serving data center customers and relationships with data center customers that are served by generation assets constructed by GenCo and related risks, see “Data Center Operations and Strategy Risks—The return structure and risk profile of ADS Contract and related development of the Contract Assets differ from those of NIPSCO’s traditionally regulated utility operations. Any future data center contracts we enter into are expected to have a comparable structure and risk profile.”
Our electric business is subject to mandatory reliability and critical infrastructure protection standards established by NERC and enforced by the FERC. The critical infrastructure protection standards focus on controlling access to critical physical and cybersecurity assets. Compliance with the mandatory reliability standards could subject our electric utilities to higher operating costs. In addition, compliance with PHMSA regulations, including the expected final ruling around leak detection and repair
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requirements could subject our gas utilities to higher operating costs and divert business resources from other activities in order to remain compliant. If our businesses are found to be in noncompliance, we could be subject to sanctions, including substantial monetary penalties, or damage to our reputation.
Changes in tax laws, as well as the potential tax effects of business decisions, could negatively impact our business, results of operations (including our expected project returns from our planned renewable energy projects), financial condition and cash flows.
Our business operations are subject to economic conditions in certain industries.
Business operations throughout our service territories have been and may continue to be adversely affected by economic events at the national and local level where our businesses operate. In particular, sales to large industrial customers, such as those in the steel, oil refining, industrial gas and related industries, are impacted by economic downturns and recession; geographic or technological shifts in production or production methods; and other changes in consumer demand, including due to a preference for environmentally friendly products and practices. The U.S. manufacturing industry continues to adjust to changing market conditions including international competition, inflation and increasing costs, government and societal pressure to decarbonization, and fluctuating demand for its products.
We are exposed to risk that customers will not remit payment for delivered energy or services, and that suppliers or counterparties will not perform under various financial or operating agreements.
Our extension of credit is governed by a Corporate Credit Risk Management Policy, involves judgment by our employees and is based on an evaluation of customer, supplier, or counterparty’s financial condition, credit history and other factors. We monitor our credit risk exposure by obtaining credit reports and updated financial information for customers and suppliers, and by evaluating the financial status of our banking partners and other counterparties by reference to market-based metrics such as credit default swap pricing levels and to traditional credit ratings provided by the major credit rating agencies. Adverse economic conditions impacting these credit risk exposures could result in an increase in defaults by customers, suppliers and counterparties. We are also exposed to the risk that due to adverse economic conditions one or more suppliers or counterparties may fail or delay the performance of their contractual obligations, such risks could negatively impact our business, financial condition and cash flow.
We are a holding company and are dependent on cash generated by our subsidiaries to meet our debt obligations and pay dividends on our stock.
We are a holding company and conduct our operations primarily through our subsidiaries, which are separate and distinct legal entities. Substantially all of our consolidated assets are held by our subsidiaries. Accordingly, our ability to meet our debt obligations or pay dividends on our common stock and preferred stock, if any, is largely dependent upon cash generated by these subsidiaries. In the event a major subsidiary is not able to pay dividends or transfer cash flows to us, our ability to service our debt obligations or pay dividends could be negatively affected.
Capital market performance and other factors may decrease the value of benefit plan assets, which then could require significant additional funding and impact earnings.
The performance of the capital markets affects the value of the assets that are held in trust to satisfy future obligations under defined benefit pension and other postretirement benefit plans. We have significant obligations in these areas and hold significant assets in these trusts. These assets are subject to market fluctuations and may yield uncertain returns, which could fall below our projected rates of return. A decline in the market value of assets may increase the funding requirements of the obligations under the defined benefit pension plans. Additionally, changes in interest rates affect the liabilities under these benefit plans; as interest rates decrease, the liabilities increase, which could potentially increase funding requirements. Further, the funding requirements of the obligations related to these benefit plans may increase due to changes in governmental regulations and participant demographics, including increased numbers of retirements or longer life expectancy assumptions, as well as voluntary early retirements. In addition, lower asset returns result in increased expenses. Ultimately, significant funding requirements and increased pension or other postretirement benefit plan expenses could impact our results of operations and financial position.
We have significant goodwill. Any future impairments of goodwill could result in a significant charge to earnings in a future period and negatively impact our compliance with certain covenants under financing agreements.
In accordance with GAAP, we test goodwill for impairment at least annually and review our definite-lived intangible assets for impairment when events or changes in circumstances indicate its fair value might be below its carrying value. Goodwill is also tested for impairment when factors, examples of which include reduced cash flow estimates, a sustained decline in stock price
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or market capitalization below book value, indicate that the carrying value may not be recoverable and results in a significant charge to earnings. We cannot predict the timing, magnitude, or duration of such changes. In general, an impairment of goodwill would not be recoverable, in which case we may record a non-cash impairment charge, which could materially impact our results of operations and financial position.
A significant impairment charge in the future could impact the capitalization ratio covenant under certain financing agreements. We are subject to a financial covenant under our revolving credit facility, which requires us to maintain a debt to capitalization ratio that does not exceed 70%. As of December 31, 2025, the ratio was 51.0%.
LITIGATION, REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE RISKS
The outcome of legal and regulatory proceedings, investigations, inquiries, claims and litigation related to our business operations may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position or liquidity.
We are, or may be, involved in legal and regulatory proceedings, investigations, inquiries, claims and litigation in connection with our business operations, the most significant of which are summarized in, Note 19, "Other Commitments and Contingencies," in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. While we maintain insurance, it may not cover all costs or expenses incurred relating to litigation. Due to the inherent uncertainty of the outcomes of such matters, there can be no assurance that the resolution of any particular claim or proceeding would not have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position or liquidity.
Our businesses are subject to various federal, state and local laws, regulations, tariffs and policies and a failure to comply with changes in, or new or different interpretations of, such laws, regulations, tariffs and policies could have an adverse impact on our business.
Our businesses are subject to various federal, state and local laws, regulations, tariffs and policies, including, but not limited to, those relating to natural gas pipeline safety, employee safety, the environment and our energy infrastructure. In particular, we are subject to significant federal, state and local regulations applicable to utility companies, including regulations by the various utility commissions in the states where we serve customers. These regulations significantly influence our operating environment, may affect our ability to recover costs from utility customers, and cause us to incur substantial compliance and other costs. Existing laws, regulations, tariffs and policies may be revised or become subject to new interpretations, and new laws, regulations, tariffs and policies may be adopted or become applicable to us and our operations. In some cases, compliance with new or different laws, regulations, tariffs and policies increases our costs or risks of liability. Supply chain constraints, both direct and indirect, including but not limited to material or labor shortages, may challenge our ability to remain in compliance with these laws, regulations, tariffs and policies and operate our business in a compliant manner. If we fail to comply with laws, regulations and tariffs applicable to us or with any changes in or new interpretations of such laws, regulations, tariffs or policies, our financial condition, results of operations, regulatory outcomes and cash flows may be materially affected.
Our businesses are regulated under numerous environmental laws and regulations. The cost of compliance with these laws and regulations, and changes to or additions to, or reinterpretations of the laws and regulations, could be significant, and the cost of compliance may not be recoverable. Liability from the failure to comply with existing or changed laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial condition.
Our businesses are subject to extensive federal, state and local environmental laws and rules that regulate, among other things, air emissions, water usage and discharges, leak detection and repair, GHG and waste products such as CCR. Compliance with these legal obligations require us to make significant expenditures for installation of pollution control equipment, remediation, environmental monitoring, emissions fees, and permits at many of our facilities. Furthermore, if we fail to comply with environmental laws and regulations or are found to have caused damage to the environment or persons, that failure or harm may result in the assessment of civil or criminal penalties and damages against us, injunctions to remedy the failure or harm, and the inability to operate facilities as designed and intended. Further, failing to comply with such laws and regulations or a determination that we have caused to the environment or persons, could result in reputational .
Existing environmental laws and regulations may be revised and new laws and regulations may be adopted or become applicable to us, with an increasing focus on the impact of coal and natural gas facilities that may result in significant additional expense and operating restrictions on our facilities, which may not be fully recoverable from customers and could materially affect the continued economic viability of our facilities.
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An area of significant uncertainty and risk are potential changes to the laws concerning emission of GHG. While we have set a Net Zero Goal and continue to execute our plan to reduce our GHG emissions by the increased sourcing of renewable energy, priority pipeline replacement, leak detection and repair, and other methods, GHG emissions are anticipated to be associated with energy delivery for many years. Future GHG legislation and/or regulation related to the generation of electricity or the extraction, production, distribution, transmission, storage and end use of natural gas could materially impact our gas supply, financial position, financial results and cash flows.
Another area of significant uncertainty and risk are the regulations concerning CCR. The EPA has issued regulations and may promulgate additional regulations concerning the management, storage, use and disposal of CCRs. NIPSCO is also incurring or will incur costs associated with closing, corrective action, and ongoing monitoring of certain CCR impoundments. Further, a release of CCR to the environment could result in remediation costs, penalties, claims, litigation, increased compliance costs, and reputational damage.
We have a pending application with the EPA to continue operation of a CCR impoundment that is tied to operation of R.M. Schahfer Generating Station Units 17 and 18, which are operating under a 202(c) order. The EPA has proposed a rule that would extend the deadline to close this CCR impoundment from 2028 to 2031. In the event that approval of this application is not obtained, or the rule is not finalized and implemented, future operations could be impacted, as well as NIPSCO's ability to comply with certain EPA requirements.
The actual future expenditures to achieve environmental compliance depends on many factors, including the nature and extent of impact, the method of remediation or improvement, the cost of raw materials, contractor costs, and requirements established by environmental authorities. Changes or increases in costs and the ability to recover under regulatory mechanisms could affect our financial position, financial results and cash flows.
Changes in tax laws or the interpretation thereof and challenges to tax positions could adversely affect our financial results.
We are subject to taxation by the various taxing authorities at the federal, state and local levels where we do business. Legislation or regulation which could affect our tax burden could be enacted or interpreted by any of these governmental authorities. The IRA imposed a 15 percent minimum tax rate on book earnings for corporations with higher than $1 billion of annual income, along with a 1 percent excise tax on corporate stock repurchases while providing tax incentives to promote various clean energy initiatives. Our NIPSCO subsidiary’s renewable portfolio is eligible for tax credits associated with the investment in renewable generation assets and production of power from those assets. Statutory changes, a challenge by a taxing authority, changes in taxing authorities’ administrative interpretations, decisions, policies and positions, our ability to utilize tax benefits such as carryforwards or tax credits, or a deviation from other tax-related assumptions may cause actual financial results to deviate from previous estimates.
DATA CENTER OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY RISKS
Data center growth in our service territories, including a focus on northern Indiana, while providing growth opportunities that enhance our business strategy, provide significant financial, operational, and regulatory risks that must be effectively managed.
As we continue to evaluate new business opportunities presented by the data center development in our territories, including a focus on northern Indiana, we face a variety of challenges including accurately predicting future power needs of data centers due to rapidly changing technology and market dynamics, managing the potential power demand, generation sources, and transmission capabilities to meet potential load growth from any data center customer, financing the capital investment needed to build and maintain the necessary infrastructure to support data center development, obtaining permitting and siting approval for necessary infrastructure (which may encounter significant local opposition), managing the possible environmental impact of the potential increased power demand while remaining focused on our Net Zero Goal, and evaluating and complying with evolving regulations related to data center development. In addition, our ADS Contract requires us to invest significant capital to develop generation sources and transmission capabilities before we receive the full return on the capital invested, and it is likely that any future data center contracts we enter into similarly will require significant investment before receiving returns. In addition, we face challenges in predicting the demand of potential data center customers in our service territories. It is possible that we may overestimate such demand, causing us to invest in generation and transmission assets in excess of those needed to serve data center customers. If we are not to utilize such assets to serve other customers, this could affect our
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reputation, cash flows, financial position and/or results of operations. We also may underestimate the potential demand of data center customers, in which case we may not be able to develop necessary generation and transmission assets within a timeframe that is acceptable to potential customers, resulting in the loss of potentially profitable opportunities. We must effectively manage these financial, operational and regulatory risks.
Our construction of the Contract Assets and any generation or transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts involves significant risks. Construction delays, cost overruns or performance issues with the Contract Assets could reduce our returns under the ADS Contract or other future data center contracts and could require us to obtain additional financing.
In connection with the ADS Contract and any future data center contracts, we expect to construct significant generation and transmission assets. Our ability to construct such assets in a timely manner and within budget is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks. See “Operational Risks— Our capital projects and programs subject us to construction and supply risks, and are subject to regulatory oversight, including requirements for permits, approvals and certificates from various governmental agencies” for additional information. Our return under the ADS Contract will be, and our return under future data center contracts is expected to be, affected by our ability to construct, develop and place into service these assets on time or at all and consistent with initial cost estimates, as well as the performance of these assets once constructed and placed into service.
Under the ADS Contract, if the Contract Assets are delivered into service late or do not achieve certain other performance-related milestones, ADS is entitled to liquidated damages, which would be offset against NIPSCO’s billings to ADS and reduce the rate of return earned under the ADS Contract. In addition, our actual costs to construct the Contract Assets may exceed the budget contemplated by the ADS Contract, which could result from delays in construction or from other factors. Any such cost overruns will need to be funded initially by us, either through our cash flows from operating activities or additional debt or equity financing. Although our EPC contracts provide certain protections against cost overruns under those contracts, and any excess costs not recoverable through the EPC contracts are to be shared by us and ADS, any recoveries from our EPC contractors and/or ADS would occur over an extended period of time. The need for us to fund these expenses in the first instance may reduce our ability to use our operating cash flows for other purposes or may require us to obtain additional debt or equity financing, which may not be available on terms or at all. These costs, if incurred, could impact our return under the ADS Contract or affect our future results and financial condition. In addition, we expect that construction , performance or cost in connection with construction of generation and transmission assets supporting any future data center contracts could similarly have a effect on our return under such contracts and our financial condition.
We will be required to obtain significant additional financing in order to construct the Contract Assets and any generation or transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts. Such financing may not be available on favorable terms, if at all.
In order to finance the construction of the Contract Assets, as well as any generation and transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts, we expect to incur significant additional long-term debt and issue additional equity in NiSource, in addition to the financing we otherwise would seek to support investments in our existing businesses and refinance existing indebtedness. The NIPSCO Holdings II LLC Agreement and Generation Holdings II LLC Agreement will allow for additional capital contributions from affiliates of Blackstone to NIPSCO Holdings II and Generation Holdings II in connection with such Blackstone affiliates’ minority interest investments in those entities. In addition, we may consider other funding sources, structures, or partnerships such as JVs or off-balance sheet arrangements such as BTAs, as market conditions and strategic considerations evolve, or as may be necessary to support maintenance of our investment grade credit ratings. The amount of additional long-term debt or NiSource equity needed to support construction of the Contract Assets and any generation and transmission assets to support future data center contracts could increase, potentially significantly, from our current expectations if we experience construction delays or cost overruns.
External factors such as inflation, monetary policy or other market conditions could impact our cost of borrowing and could make it more difficult to obtain the financing that is required to construct the Contract Assets and any generation and transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts on favorable terms, or at all. The issuance of additional debt could negatively impact our credit ratings and overall cost of capital, which could in turn adversely affect our future results and liquidity. In addition, an economic downturn or uncertainty, market turmoil, changes in interest rates, changes in tax policy, challenges faced by financial institutions, or a change in investor sentiment toward us or the utilities industry or the cloud-computing, artificial intelligence and data center industry generally could adversely affect our ability to raise the necessary capital. Reduced access to capital markets, increased borrowing costs, and/or lower equity valuation levels could jeopardize our
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ability to complete construction of the Contract Assets or any generation and transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts on-time and within budget, and could reduce future earnings per share and cash flows. In addition, any rise in interest rates may lead to higher borrowing costs, which may adversely impact reported earnings, cost of capital and capital holdings.
Pursuit of our partnership with ADS creates significant opportunity costs and reduces our strategic and financial flexibility in the near term.
We expect to incur significant indebtedness to fund our construction of the Contract Assets. Doing so will reduce our ability to incur further indebtedness to pursue other strategic opportunities, such as partnerships with other large data center customers or strategic mergers and acquisitions, while at the same time maintaining our investment grade credit ratings, which may require us to rely to a greater degree on equity financing in connection with future data center contracts and also may increase our reliance on equity financing for future investments in our existing traditionally regulated utility business, each of which could lead to substantial dilution of our existing shareholders. In addition, our credit rating agencies consider the percentage of our business comprised of traditionally regulated utility operations in their analysis of our credit quality.
In addition to these factors relating to our financing and credit ratings, our partnership with ADS is expected to employ a significant amount of our existing excess transmission infrastructure, which will limit our ability to use these assets for other opportunities, including additional data center opportunities. Furthermore, effectively overseeing the construction and financing of the Contract Assets will require significant time and attention of our management, which could detract from their oversight of our existing business and ability to pursue other strategic opportunities.
The return structure and risk profile of ADS Contract and any future data center contract will differ from those of NIPSCO’s traditionally regulated utility operations.
NIPSCO’s and GenCo’s operations under the ADS Contract will be, and under future data center contracts are expected to be, regulated by the IURC in a different way from the regulatory mechanisms applicable to NIPSCO’s historical operations, which affects the manner in which we recover our investment costs and earn a return on our investment. NIPSCO’s electric utility rates historically have been determined and approved in regulatory proceedings with the IURC based on an analysis of NIPSCO’s costs to provide utility service and a return on, and recovery of, NIPSCO’s investment in the utility business. Through the IURC rate-making process, retail rates may be adjusted over time, and NIPSCO may request additional revenue, in order to cover ongoing costs and investment and earn an adequate return.
In contrast, the terms of the ADS Contract were, and the terms of any future contracts with other data center customers are expected to be, determined through commercial negotiations. In the case of the ADS Contract, these terms include the charges that we receive from ADS, which are designed to allow us to recover the costs that we incur to construct and operate the Contract Assets and earn a return, and provisions that may result in adjustments to those charges such as, among other factors, those relating to certain liquidated damages that we may owe ADS in the event of construction delays or capacity shortfalls and the parties’ responsibility to share cost overruns, among other provisions. The terms of any future data center contracts we enter into may differ from the terms of the ADS Contract. For example, customer demand may not be served through designated assets and may contemplate that capacity will be procured via PPAs with third parties. However, the terms of any future data center contracts (including the charges we receive from customers and any potential adjustments to such charges) will inform our ability to recover our investments and earn a return. These terms of the ADS Contract do not, and the terms of any future data center contract are not expected to, guarantee a specific overall rate of return, and the overall return we earn under the ADS Contract or any future data center contracts may ultimately be lower than that of NIPSCO’s traditional utility operations. The IURC will not determine the commercial terms of the ADS Contract and is not expected to determine the commercial terms of any future data center contracts; however, the IURC is expected to maintain oversight under the ADS Contract and any future data center contracts to ensure NIPSCO provides reliable service to ADS and any future data center customers at just and reasonable rates. In order to recover our investment costs and earn our return under the ADS Contract and any future data center contracts, our subsidiaries must perform their own obligations and must look to ADS or future customers (or, if applicable, any parent guarantor) to perform its obligations, rather than the IURC making use of its traditional rate-making process. In addition, under the ADS Contract, NIPSCO has direct contractual obligations to the ADS to, among other things, construct the Contract Assets and deliver committed electric capacity in fixed amounts by certain dates. We expect our subsidiaries to have comparable contractual obligations to customers in connection with any future data center contracts. If arise with data center customers, including ADS, regarding provisions of a data center contract, including the ADS Contract, or payments to be made or actions to be taken thereunder, we may be significantly as a result of, among other factors, the significance of such contracts to us and the resources (financial and otherwise) available to the relevant customer. Any or with a data center customer, including ADS, could create significant demands on the attention of management and result in significant costs to us.
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In addition, the IURC, through its review and approval of the ADS Contract and any future data center contracts, and the related PPAs between NIPSCO and GenCo, will have ultimate authority over the implementation of these agreements. In this context, we will need to continuously assess the applicability of ASC Topic 980 over the life of the ADS Contract and other data center contracts. It is possible that significant construction overruns, capacity shortfalls or other events that could result in NIPSCO or GenCo owing liquidated damages under the ADS Contract or any future data center contract could either preclude ongoing application of ASC Topic 980 or result in an immediate disallowance and impairment of the Contract Assets, or, if applicable, and any generation and transmission assets we develop to support future data center contracts. In addition, early termination of the ADS Contract or any future data center contract, as applicable, could result in such impairment and discontinuation of application of ASC Topic 980 with respect to the assets being constructed to serve the applicable data center contract, unless such assets can be used to support new or existing customers. If we incur significant costs that we are not to recover from ADS or future data center customers (for example, than expected purchases of market capacity or operations and maintenance costs significantly exceeding those contemplated by the ADS Contract or any future data center contract), this also could the application of ASC Topic 980 to the ADS Contract and the Contract Assets, or other applicable data center contract and related assets.
Our partnership with ADS exposes us to significant customer concentration risk.
ADS will be a significant customer of our electric utility operations. For example, the generating capacity of the Contract Assets, when fully delivered into service, is expected to be approximately equivalent to the generating capacity of all NIPSCO’s existing generating assets. However, ADS has the right to terminate the ADS Contract for convenience following certain notice periods. If ADS terminates or defaults under the ADS Contract or elects not to renew the ADS Contract after the initial term, we may not be able to replace ADS’ demand or otherwise fully utilize the assets constructed in connection with the ADS Contract. We also may not receive the same level of return with respect to any alternative use.
In addition, ADS has a one-time option (exercisable no later than March 31, 2029) to halve committed capacity under the ADS Contract to 1,200 MW commencing January 31, 2032. If ADS elects to reduce the committed capacity under the ADS Contract or to terminate the ADS Contract during its initial term, we will not receive the full earnings we expect to receive over the life of the ADS Contract. Although the ADS Contract provides for reimbursement for our investment in the Contract Assets and related expenses in the event of a reduction in the committed capacity or early termination, the amount of any reimbursement is capped under the ADS Contract, with the amount of the caps being based on cost estimates determined as of signing. Furthermore, our ability to collect any reimbursable amounts will depend upon the willingness and ability of ADS or its parent guarantor to satisfy their payment obligations under the ADS Contract and related guarantee. Accordingly, we may not be able to recover our full investment, which may adversely affect our future results and financial condition.
Any of the above outcomes could adversely affect our future results, financial conditions and results of operations. Termination of the ADS Contract during its initial term or exercise by ADS of its one-time option to reduce capacity also may cause us reputational harm, which could, among other things, negatively affect our ability to source and execute contracts with additional data center customers.
Although we anticipate expanding our base of data center customers, we expect the total number of data center customers we serve to remain relatively small by comparison to our current customer base. Any future data center contracts our subsidiaries enter into may contain termination and/or capacity reduction provisions and related reimbursement comparable to the ADS Contract, exposing us to risks comparable to those described above (the significance of which will be affected by the relative size of any such contract and the costs we incur to develop resources supporting such contract). The concentration of business with a small number of customers in an industry based on emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, presents several risks for us. Our data center customers’ technologies and their related business applications have developed rapidly in recent years and continue to develop. We cannot predict the rate at which or the extent to which these emerging technologies will be broadly adopted and successful as business models. Additionally, these customers may experience business downturn, which may cause the loss of these customers or may weaken their financial condition. Similarly, customers may reduce their investment in these new technologies or them entirely.
Many factors, including those outside our and our data center customers’ control, could cause our data center customers to terminate their data center contracts or exercise any applicable options to reduce capacity. These factors also could contribute to an overall lessening of demand from data center customers. Such factors include, for example: (i) construction delays, cost overruns or capacity shortfalls that occur in connection with our construction of the generation and transmission assets we plan to construct to serve our data center customers, (ii) similar problems that our data center customers may encounter in
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connection with constructing their data centers, (iii) any decrease or lessening of current cloud-computing or artificial intelligence demand trends or a change in the current supportive legal and regulatory environment (in Northern Indiana or elsewhere) with respect to cloud-computing or artificial intelligence, as well as other factors such as environmental concerns (for example, relating to the sourcing of natural gas to power data centers or supplying water from local resources to cool data centers), which could negatively impact the demand for data centers, (iv) technological or other advances impacting the design and operation of data centers, which could reduce the amount of electricity needed to power data centers, potentially significantly, (v) competing energy technologies could become a preferred source of energy for powering data centers, (vi) any business downturns or weakening financial condition that our data center customers may experience and (vii) any decision by our data center customers to reduce their investment in these new technologies or abandon them entirely.
In addition, as a result of the ADS Contract, and any further agreements we may sign with data center companies, our stock price may experience increased volatility as a result of factors outside our control. For example, our stock price may be negatively affected as a result of any actual or perceived slowdown in the adoption of artificial intelligence technology, the regulation or proposed regulation of such technology, or actual or perceived changes in the strategic or financial position of our data center customers. The trading prices for shares of stock in a number of U.S. public companies operating or serving data centers have recently experienced significant volatility.
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